Frank et al., "AI exposure predicts unemployment risk" (2025)

Morgan Frank, Yong-Yeol Ahn, and Esteban Moro, PNAS Nexus 4(4), pgaf107 (2025)
DOI | arXiv | PDF | Data

@article{frank2025ai,
    author = {Morgan Frank and Yong-Yeol Ahn and Esteban Moro},
    title = {AI exposure predicts unemployment risk},
    journal = {PNAS Nexus},
    volume = {4},
    number = {4},
    pages = {pgaf107},
    doi = {10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf107},
    year = {2025},
}

We analyze occupation-level unemployment data from US states between 2010–2020 to test whether AI exposure models predict job losses. While individual AI exposure models show limited predictive value, an ensemble combining multiple models demonstrates substantial predictive power, suggesting different models capture distinct aspects of AI’s occupational impact across regions and time periods.