DeVerna et al., "Modeling the amplification of epidemic spread by misinformation" (2025)

Matthew DeVerna, Francesco Pierri, Yong-Yeol Ahn, Santo Fortunato, Alessandro Flammini, and Filippo Menczer, npj Complexity 2, 11 (2025)
DOI | arXiv | PDF | Code and Data

@article{deverna2025modeling,
    author = {Matthew DeVerna and Francesco Pierri and Yong-Yeol Ahn and Santo Fortunato and Alessandro Flammini and Filippo Menczer},
    title = {Modeling the amplification of epidemic spread by individuals exposed to misinformation on social media},
    journal = {npj Complexity},
    volume = {2},
    pages = {11},
    doi = {10.1038/s44260-025-00038-y},
    year = {2025},
}

We develop an epidemic simulation incorporating mobility-based contact networks and geographically-distributed misinformed individuals identified through social media analysis. The model compares scenarios ranging from worst-case (single exposure causes misinformation adoption) to best-case (population highly resistant to false information), estimating how many additional Americans might have contracted COVID-19 under conditions of widespread vaccine Misinformation exposure.