Bollenbacher et al., "On the challenges of predicting microscopic dynamics of online conversations" (2021)

John Bollenbacher, Diogo Pacheco, Pik-Mai Hui, Yong-Yeol Ahn, Alessandro Flammini, and Filippo Menczer, Applied Network Science 6(1), 12 (2021)
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@article{bollenbacher2021challenges,
    author = {John Bollenbacher and Diogo Pacheco and Pik-Mai Hui and Yong-Yeol Ahn and Alessandro Flammini and Filippo Menczer},
    title = {On the challenges of predicting microscopic dynamics of online conversations},
    journal = {Applied Network Science},
    volume = {6},
    number = {1},
    pages = {12},
    doi = {10.1007/s41109-021-00357-8},
    year = {2021},
}

Builds a generative model for the size and evolution of threaded conversations on Reddit and Twitter. It predicts final-tree features and near-future events moderately well, but errors accumulate during longer microscopic reconstructions.

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